IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Louisiana Monroe
Sun Belt
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.6	#278
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	62.6	#322
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.5	#295

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.1	#236

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.5%	0.9%	0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.9	13.7	14.2

.500 or above	14.3%	23.8%	8.0%
.500 or above in Conference	17.4%	24.1%	12.8%
Conference Champion	0.7%	1.2%	0.4%
Last Place in Conference	31.8%	24.7%	36.5%

First Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
First Round	0.5%	0.8%	0.3%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern St. (Away) - 40.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 8	3 - 12
Quad 4	5 - 5	8 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Dec 01, 2020	283	@ Northwestern St.	L	71-74	40%
Dec 03, 2020	109	@ Louisiana Tech	L	59-73	11%
Dec 09, 2020	236	Lamar	W	68-67	54%
Dec 12, 2020	136	Stephen F. Austin	L	68-73	32%
Dec 16, 2020	316	Grambling St.	W	69-62	72%
Dec 19, 2020	229	@ Southern Miss	L	63-68	32%
Dec 22, 2020	109	Louisiana Tech	L	62-70	25%
Jan 01, 2021	219	Arkansas St.	W	69-68	51%
Jan 02, 2021	219	Arkansas St.	W	69-68	51%
Jan 08, 2021	156	Texas Arlington	L	64-68	37%
Jan 09, 2021	156	Texas Arlington	L	64-68	37%
Jan 15, 2021	219	@ Arkansas St.	L	65-71	32%
Jan 16, 2021	219	@ Arkansas St.	L	65-71	32%
Jan 22, 2021	143	Texas St.	L	62-67	34%
Jan 23, 2021	143	Texas St.	L	62-67	34%
Jan 29, 2021	127	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	64-76	16%
Jan 30, 2021	127	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	64-76	16%
Feb 05, 2021	156	@ Texas Arlington	L	61-71	21%
Feb 06, 2021	156	@ Texas Arlington	L	61-71	21%
Feb 11, 2021	185	@ Louisiana	L	68-76	25%
Feb 13, 2021	185	Louisiana	L	71-73	43%
Feb 19, 2021	127	Arkansas Little Rock	L	67-73	31%
Feb 20, 2021	127	Arkansas Little Rock	L	67-73	31%
Feb 26, 2021	143	@ Texas St.	L	59-70	19%
Feb 27, 2021	143	@ Texas St.	L	59-70	19%
Projected Record						8 - 17	5 - 13

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Sun Belt Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0			0.7	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0				1.5	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.2	0.7	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0					2.2	3rd
4th									0.0	0.4	1.2	1.3	0.5	0.1	0.0						3.4	4th
5th								0.0	0.4	1.4	2.0	0.5	0.1	0.0							4.4	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	1.9	2.5	1.1	0.1	0.0								5.8	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	1.9	3.5	1.4	0.2	0.0									7.3	7th
8th					0.0	0.4	2.0	3.7	2.1	0.2	0.0										8.5	8th
9th				0.1	0.5	2.5	4.7	2.6	0.5	0.0											10.9	9th
10th			0.2	1.0	3.5	5.7	3.3	0.5	0.0												14.2	10th
11th	0.1	0.9	2.6	5.5	5.9	3.3	0.8	0.0													19.1	11th
12th	2.3	5.4	6.6	4.8	2.5	0.4	0.0														22.0	12th

Total	2.3	6.3	9.3	11.4	12.4	12.4	11.1	9.1	8.4	5.9	4.7	2.8	1.9	1.1	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0				Total

Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0
16-2	85.7%	0.1		0.0	0.0
15-3	55.8%	0.2		0.1	0.0	0.0
14-4	50.1%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-5	16.4%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-6	1.5%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.3%	0.0					0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.7%	0.7		0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1	0.0%		95.7%	95.7%		12.1										0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
16-2	0.1%		71.4%	71.4%		13.2													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
15-3	0.3%		57.1%	51.9%	5.1%	13.7													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1		10.7%
14-4	0.5%		40.4%	40.4%		14.0													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.3
13-5	1.1%		6.6%	6.6%		14.4														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.1
12-6	1.9%		0.6%	0.6%		14.3															0.0	0.0	0.0	1.9
11-7	2.8%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	2.8
10-8	4.7%																							4.7
9-9	5.9%																							5.9
8-10	8.4%																							8.4
7-11	9.1%																							9.1
6-12	11.1%																							11.1
5-13	12.4%																							12.4
4-14	12.4%																							12.4
3-15	11.4%																							11.4
2-16	9.3%																							9.3
1-17	6.3%																							6.3
0-18	2.3%																							2.3

Total	100%		0.5%	0.5%	0.0%	13.9										0.0		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	99.5		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.5%